Tuesday, November 6, 2012

2012 Electoral College Projection

   First, thank you for reading this blog. It has been a very fun and fascinating last couple of months watching the political landscape and being able to offer a different kind of insight. Every page view is greatly appreciated. However, this exciting close of a cycle is not the end! Plato said, "Man is by nature a political animal" and The Edwards Analysis will continue to cover the grizzly scenery.

   Today is Tuesday November 6, 2012, THE BIG DAY! It's important to remember the popular vote will be important, but what will be more important will be the electoral college. 270 electoral votes is the magic number to become President of the United States of America. Here is a quick look at the Edwards Analysis projections.

Definite Obama States (electoral votes):
California (55), New York (29), Illinois (20), MICHIGAN (16), NEW JERSEY (14), Washington (12), Massachusetts (11), Maryland (10), MINNESOTA (10), Connecticut (7), Oregon (7), New Mexico(5), Hawaii (4), Maine (4), Rhode Island (4), Delaware (3), Vermont (3), Washington D.C. (3)... 

For a grand total of 217 electoral votes. Michigan, Minnesota, and New Jersey were all done in caps lock and bold because the majority of opinions out there see them as toss up states. All three of these will almost definitely go for Obama, if they do not, then this is going to be an ugly short night for the President. A special note on Minnesota: Michael Barone, Dick Morris, George Will, and Kevin Koffler all think that Minnesota will go Romney. These are very, very smart guys, and come tomorrow morning, they may be correct.

IF any of the states on the Obama list come in for Romney, you can go ahead and change the channel because it is a done deal. 

Definite Romney States (electoral votes):
Texas (38), Florida (29), OHIO (18), Georgia (16), North Carolina (15), Virginia (13), Arizona (11), Indiana (11), Tennessee (11), Missouri (10), Alabama (9), Colorado (9), South Carolina (9), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Oklahoma (7), Arkansas (6), Iowa (6), Kansas (6), Mississippi (6), Utah (6), Nebraska (5), West Virginia (5), Idaho (4), New Hampshire (4), Alaska (3), Montana (3), North Dakota (3), South Dakota (3), Wyoming (3)...

Here are the surprise Romney States
Pennsylvania (20), Wisconsin (10), NEVADA (6)

For a grand total of 321 electoral votes. Ohio is in caps and bold because it is the state of states in the mind of many pundits, and it is being called as a toss up currently by the majority of opinions out there. Nevada is in caps and bold because only Kevin Koffler and the Edwards Analysis see it going Romney... And it will probably go Obama. 

In sum, the Edwards Analysis is projecting that Romney will take 51-54% of the popular vote, and will win the Presidency with 321 electoral votes. Worst case scenario? Romney slightly over 50% with 295 electoral votes. To say it another way, Romney will win by 295 electoral votes or more, and this blog sees it as being a likely 321 electoral votes.

Here are some other predictions:

Karl "The Architect" Rove - Romney 285 electoral votes

Dick Morris - Romney 325 electoral votes

George Will - Romney 321 electoral votes

Kevin Koffler - Romney 321 electoral votes

Nate Silver - Obama 313 electoral votes AND a 90%+ chance of winning (this links to a Slate article that cites his projections as of this morning)

Rush Limbaugh - Romney 300 plus electoral votes

Michael Barone - Romney 315 electoral votes

Larry Sabato - Obama 290 electoral votes

Jim Cramer - Obama 440 electoral votes

Here is a more complete list of predictions from Ezra Klein.

One last thing to mention, on August 18, 2012 The Edwards Analysis made an appraisal of 322 electoral votes for Romney, and has maintained a 320 stance ever since.

Now go out and vote!

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